Rapid advances in artificial intelligence have increased concerns about the possible consequences of this technology for the future of humanity. From the emergence of superintelligence beyond human control to the production of biological weapons, nuclear war, and societal collapse, researchers have proposed various scenarios, some of which could threaten human survival.
In early September, Jacob Coxon, an AI researcher, resigned just four months after joining Anthropic. He wrote on the social network X that people working on developing AI truly believe this technology could lead to the destruction of humanity before the end of this decade.
Ivan Hobinger, another figure at Anthropic, agreed with this concern and, based on his personal assessment, put the probability of such a catastrophe within the next 10 years at over 10 percent.
These statements prompted widespread reactions and again raised the debate about the need to slow down AI development and strengthen human oversight of the technology.
Although the idea of machines smarter than humans has been a subject of science fiction for years, some researchers believe the potential dangers of such technologies are no longer confined to the realm of imagination.
Notably, an advanced AI does not necessarily need war robots or advanced weapons to harm humanity; it may create devastating consequences simply by influencing human behavior and decisions.
Below, we examine five proposed scenarios about the existential risks of AI, starting with highly hypothetical threats and moving to dangers that can arise through human behavior itself.
1. The emergence of a superintelligence whose behavior is unpredictable
One of the core concerns about the future of AI is the rise of a system whose cognitive abilities surpass humans across all domains.
Proponents of this scenario argue that humans might not even be able to comprehend the goals and decisions of such a superintelligent being; just as one cannot expect a dog to understand the concept of nuclear war.
According to this argument, predicting the behavior of a very advanced AI might require a comparable level of intelligence; a matter that calls into question humanity’s ability to identify and contain potential threats.
However, it is still unclear how close we are to achieving such a level of AI. Current models, while impressive at certain specialized tasks, do not necessarily imply superiority over humans in all areas.
At the same time, progress in AI systems solving complex mathematical problems shows that we should not dismiss the possibility of unexpected advances. The discussed article even refers to a report about solving one of the seven famous Millennium Prize problems with the help of AI; a claim that requires independent verification for definitive acceptance.
2. Turning the world into a paperclip factory
It may seem strange at first glance, but one of the most famous scenarios of humanity’s destruction by AI involves paperclips. Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the University of Oxford, used this example to illustrate the danger of poorly specified goals for superintelligent systems.
Suppose an AI is tasked with producing as many paperclips as possible. If this system, without regard for human lives and ethical constraints, solely pursues its objective, it may conclude it should devote all available resources to producing paperclips.
In the most extreme form of this scenario, even humans, planets, and stars could be converted into resources to achieve this goal.
The important point is that such a system is not necessarily hostile to humans or seeking revenge; it may simply, due to a poorly defined objective, make decisions incompatible with human survival.
Of course, this scenario has critics. Possessing very high intelligence does not necessarily mean having the ability to control the world’s resources. Even a superintelligent system would need physical capabilities, infrastructure, and to overcome human resistance to carry out its plans.
3. Creating dangerous biological agents with the help of AI
Another worrying scenario is the use of AI to design new and highly dangerous pathogens. In the AI 2027 research project, which examines potential AI development scenarios, the possibility of using superintelligent systems to create biological threats is also raised.
The concern becomes more serious when AI advances in biology and genetic design are taken into account.
In this context, Stanford University researchers have reported that using a model trained on genetic sequences, they produced 16 new viruses.
However, the ability to produce viruses in a research environment does not mean creating an agent capable of destroying humanity.
For such a catastrophe to occur, a pathogen would need a combination of very difficult traits simultaneously, including the ability to spread widely and cause very high mortality.
These traits do not necessarily coincide. For example, some highly lethal pathogens may kill their hosts before they have the chance to spread widely.
Therefore, while the use of AI in developing biological threats is a serious matter for security review, the complete annihilation of humans through this route remains a highly difficult and hypothetical scenario.
4. The start of nuclear war due to AI’s mistaken decisions
The fourth scenario involves one of the most dangerous technologies created by humans: nuclear weapons.
If AI systems play a larger role in analyzing military intelligence or in decision-making related to nuclear arms, their potential errors could have catastrophic consequences.
Over the past five decades, several false alarms and misjudgments have brought the world to the brink of nuclear confrontation. The worry is that overreliance on AI analyses could increase the likelihood of wrong decisions in crisis situations.
Although command-and-control systems for nuclear weapons are said to be isolated from the public internet, cyberattack experiences have shown that network separation alone is not a guarantee against intrusion.
One well-known example is the Stuxnet malware attack in 2010 on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This malware, which is believed to have been introduced via USB drives to targeted systems, disrupted centrifuge operations.
In an AI-related scenario, a system could provide false information about an enemy’s potential attack to military commanders and lead them to make decisions with irreversible consequences.
Despite the reduction in the number of the world’s nuclear warheads compared to past decades, existing arsenals still have the capacity to cause widespread devastation. The estimate cited in the report even suggests the possibility of nearly half the world’s population dying in a large-scale nuclear war.
5. Gradual destruction of human societies; without a machine uprising
The fifth scenario may be more worrying than the others because it does not require the emergence of a rogue superintelligence. In this scenario, humans themselves, through misuse of AI, create the conditions for weakening and ultimately collapsing their own societies.
The rapid spread of AI could radically change the labor market and, in the absence of appropriate support mechanisms, lead to the loss of a large number of jobs.
On the other hand, mass production of misinformation, deepfakes, and misleading content could undermine public trust in the media, institutions, and even verifiable facts.
Intensified political and social polarization is another likely consequence of malicious use of this technology.
Alongside these issues, the proliferation of AI-based virtual companions could affect human relationships and, in some cases, instead of strengthening social connections, foster greater isolation of individuals.
The main concern is that such consequences could gradually accumulate and weaken economic, political, and social structures to the point that societies can no longer provide livable conditions for large portions of their populations.
In this situation, AI does not directly go to war against humans; rather, it can become a factor that exacerbates crises which humans themselves help create.
Is the destruction of humanity by AI inevitable?
According to Futura Sciences, these five scenarios differ in nature and likelihood, and the article’s author orders them from less likely threats to those he considers more realistic. However, this ordering is not a definitive prediction or a scientific ranking agreed upon by all researchers.
Positing such scenarios does not mean they are certain to occur. Many of the risks discussed remain hypothetical and there is disagreement about their actual probability.
What matters is identifying threats in a timely manner, developing safety mechanisms, maintaining human oversight over sensitive systems, and avoiding delegating critical decisions to technologies whose behavior may not be fully predictable.
Ultimately, the future of AI depends not only on the extent of technological progress; it also depends on the decisions humans make about how to develop, control, and use it.