There is nothing more exciting compared with the winter 1404 quarterly report. The latest data from the Communications Regulatory Authority shows the number of active mobile subscribers in spring 1405 reached 174,350,000; a figure that compared to about 164,190,000 subscribers in last spring, shows growth of more than 6 percent. At the same time, mobile penetration rose from 189.68 percent to 200.1 percent. Crossing this indicator above 200 percent is not meant to imply that every Iranian has more than two mobile phones. This number, more than anything else, reflects the multi-SIM structure of the market; a market in which some users simultaneously use several lines for calls, internet, business activities or using different bundles.
The composition of this market is still based on prepaid SIM cards. Of the total active lines, around over 130,000,000 are prepaid and nearly 45,000,000 are postpaid. Thus, nearly three-quarters of Iran's mobile market is still held by prepaid SIM cards.
However, growth of postpaid lines over the past year has been faster than that of prepaid lines. The number of postpaid lines rose from about 39,700,000 to over 44,000,000, while prepaid lines increased from about 124,500,000 to around over 130,000,000. The market structure has not yet changed, but in its underlying layers, the composition of connections is slowly shifting.
On the other side of this narrative is fixed-line telephony; a market that unlike mobile continues on a downward path. Fixed-line penetration decreased from 32.32 percent in spring 1404 to 31.54 percent in this spring and the number of subscribers dropped from about 27,970,000 to 27,480,000. The differing trajectories of these two markets are one of the clearest signs of change in the country's communication pattern: the weight of everyday communications has moved more than before toward mobile networks.
Fifth generation remains unmoved
If mobile has grown in terms of number of connections, mobile internet has also become the largest segment of Iran's communications market. In spring 1405, the total subscribers of 3G, 4G and 5G mobile internet reached about 146,500,000 subscriptions. Among them, 4G remains the main pillar of the market.
Nearly 117,000,000 mobile internet subscriptions are on fourth generation; that is about 91.6 percent of the market. Third generation with 4,200,000 subscribers has a share of about 3.35 percent, and fifth generation with 6,500,000 has reached a share of over 5 percent.
Despite this, 5G has not yet replaced 4G and has mostly become a fresh layer in the architecture of the communications market. Fourth generation remains the dominant technology and the majority of users operate on this network. In contrast, 3G has reached a stage where its market share is narrowing every day. Therefore, the future structure of mobile internet can be sought between the stabilization of 4G and the gradual expansion of 5G.
In the speed indicator, the difference between generations is still meaningful. Reported download speed for 3G is between 2.84 to 4.26 Mbps and for 4G between 16.07 to 22.78 Mbps. However, in the published data, a similar indicator for 5G speed is not provided in this section.
Fixed or mobile; which quality is better?
Fixed broadband subscribers are also declining. According to the Regulatory Authority's statistical quarterly, the number of fixed broadband subscriptions fell from about 11,200,000 in spring 1404 to about 10,500,000 in this spring and the penetration of this market has decreased to about 12 percent.
However, the retreat or decline in subscription numbers does not mean mobile internet is superior in all indicators. Quality of connection data shows that fixed internet still performs better in some technical indicators.
The average round-trip time or RTT for domestic connections in fixed internet is recorded at 20.67 milliseconds and in mobile internet at 33.31 milliseconds. For international connections, this indicator is 85.17 for fixed internet and 114.68 milliseconds for mobile internet.
In the Jitter indicator, a similar situation is observed. Average internal Jitter in fixed internet is 1.06 milliseconds and in mobile internet 5.65 milliseconds. For international connections these figures are 2.59 and 12.56 milliseconds respectively.
These numbers now reveal a contrast that deserves more attention. The Iranian market in terms of number of subscribers has become more dependent on mobile internet than ever, but fixed internet still provides a better technical experience in terms of latency and connection stability. Therefore, the shrinking fixed internet market is not exactly the result of its redundancy.
Incomplete transition to fiber
The technological composition of fixed internet also tells the winding path of this market. In spring 1405, X-DSL with 6,560,000 subscriptions still holds about 62.68 percent of the market. TD-LTE with about 2,501,000 subscriptions has a share close to 24 percent. FTTX subscriptions have reached 1,038,000 and Wi‑Fi constitutes about 369,000 subscriptions.
This structure shows that Iran's fixed internet still relies on old pillars. The X-DSL technology, despite a decrease of more than one million subscriptions between spring 1404 and spring 1405, remains the main player in this market.
On the other hand, fiber is growing. FTTX subscriptions rose in one year from about 692,000 to over 1,038,000; an increase of about 346,000 subscriptions. But this growth has not yet been sufficient to change the architecture of the entire market. Fiber is advancing, but the replacement rate of old technologies is still slower than needed to speak of a complete transition.
Moreover, the number of households covered by fiber-optic networks has reached 11,100,000; a figure that shows a significant gap between coverage capacity and actual number of connections. Expansion of coverage has not yet converted into subscribers to the same extent.
Reports on network quality
Data on service establishment success also confirms the superiority of fourth generation over third generation. The success rate of establishing data service in 3G is reported between 97.88 to 99.42 percent and in 4G between 99.31 to 99.65 percent. The dropout rate in 4G, with figures between 0.16 to 0.23 percent, is lower than 3G with a range of 0.31 to 0.55 percent.
The sum of these figures shows that the main pillar of Iran's mobile internet is not 4G solely because of its breadth; its greater stability also plays a role in consolidating this position. Alongside that, the existence of 52,000 active physical 4G sites indicates that fourth generation remains the main operational network of the country's communications market.
Development of communications and access gap
In the field of geographic development the report also shows that 37,886 villages have at least one type of connectivity. Of these, about 32,091 villages have broadband coverage with 3G or 4G or higher technology.
The gap between these two numbers, although alone it cannot explain the entire quality of rural communications development, reveals a clear divide: having some form of connectivity does not necessarily mean having broadband internet. This distinction becomes more important when a large portion of public, economic and educational services depend on the internet.
What do users complain about?
The market picture is incomplete without complaint data. In spring 1405, the largest volume of registered complaints related to fixed broadband with 20,768 cases. After that, fixed-line telephony with 11,962 and mobile telephony with 6,301 complaints follow.
But perhaps more important than the number of complaints is their subject. "Service outage" tops the five most frequent topics in the 195 system. After that, delays in installation and setup, failure to collect the service, dissatisfaction with support responsiveness, and technical problems of fixed lines are listed.
These data return one important point to the center of the picture. The users' issue is not only speed. Before discussing megabits and network generation, a more fundamental issue exists; continuity of access. A market that has grown in number of connections still faces in parts of the user experience the most basic demand, namely not having service interruptions. / Donya-e-Eqtesad